# KitweChapter_ForecastingCOVID19Dynamics

Kitwe Chapter - Forecasting COVID-19 Dynamics: Cases, Recovery, and Testing Trends

DATA DESCRIPTION

new_cases -> New confirmed cases of COVID-19. Counts can include probable cases, where reported. In rare cases where our source reports a negative daily change due to a data correction, we set this metric to NA.

total_cases-> Total confirmed cases of COVID-19. Counts can include probable cases, where reported.

new_cases_smoothed -> New confirmed cases of COVID-19 (7-day smoothed). Counts can include probable cases, where reported.

new_deaths -> New deaths attributed to COVID-19. Counts can include probable deaths, where reported. In rare cases where our source reports a negative daily change due to a data correction, we set this metric to NA.

new_deaths_smoothed -> New deaths attributed to COVID-19 (7-day smoothed). Counts can include probable deaths, where reported.

reproduction_rate -> Real-time estimate of the effective reproduction rate (R) of COVID-19. See https://github.com/crondonm/TrackingR/tree/main/Estimates-Database

total_tests -> Total tests for COVID-19

total_tests_per_thousand -> Total tests for COVID-19 per 1,000 people

new_tests_smoothed_per_thousand -> New tests for COVID-19 (7-day smoothed) per 1,000 people

new_tests -> New tests for COVID-19 (only calculated for consecutive days)

new_tests_smoothed -> New tests for COVID-19 (7-day smoothed). For countries that don't report testing data on a daily basis, we assume that testing changed equally on a daily basis over any periods in which no data was reported. This produces a complete series of daily figures, which is then averaged over a rolling 7-day window

positive_rate -> The share of COVID-19 tests that are positive, given as a rolling 7-day average (this is the inverse of tests_per_case)

tests_per_case -> Tests conducted per new confirmed case of COVID-19, given as a rolling 7-day average (this is the inverse of positive_rate)

new_vaccinations_smoothed -> New COVID-19 vaccination doses administered (7-day smoothed). For countries that don't report vaccination data on a daily basis, we assume that vaccination changed equally on a daily basis over any periods in which no data was reported. This produces a complete series of daily figures, which is then averaged over a rolling 7-day window

new_people_vaccinated_smoothed -> Daily number of people receiving their first vaccine dose (7-day smoothed)

new_people_vaccinated_smoothed_per_hundred -> Daily number of people receiving their first vaccine dose (7-day smoothed) per 100 people in the total population

stringency_index -> Government Response Stringency Index: composite measure based on 9 response indicators including school closures, workplace closures, and travel bans, rescaled to a value from 0 to 100 (100 = strictest response)

cumulative_estimated_daily_excess_deaths -> Excess deaths refer to the number of deaths above what would be expected based on historical data, and it's often used as an indirect measure of the impact of the pandemic.

estimated_daily_excess_deaths -> Similar to the cumulative measure, this variable represents the number of deaths above what would be expected based on historical data, but it's reported on a daily basis.

Confirmed per 1000 -> Represents the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases per 1000 people in the total population.

Died per 1000 -> Represents the number of COVID-19 deaths per 1000 people in the total population.

test24hours -> Number of COVID-19 tests conducted within a 24-hour period.

deathDay -> Number of deaths as a result of COVID-19 within a single day.

broughDead ->

testsPositivity -> The percentage of COVID-19 tests that return positive results, indicating the prevalence of the virus within the tested population.

vaccinated24hours -> Number of COVID-19 vaccine doses administered within a 24-hour period.

totalVaccinations -> Total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses administered.

partiallyVaccinated -> Number of individuals who have received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine but have not yet completed the full vaccination regimen.

fullyVaccinated -> Number of individuals who have completed the full vaccination regimen for COVID-19.

recoveryRate -> The percentage of individuals diagnosed with COVID-19 who have subsequently recovered from the illness.

deathRate -> The percentage of individuals diagnosed with COVID-19 who have died from the illness.

testPositivityRate -> The percentage of COVID-19 tests that return positive results, indicating the prevalence of the virus within the tested population.

Confirmed -> Total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases.

Deaths -> Total number of deaths as a result of COVID-19.

Recovered -> Total number of individuals who have recovered from COVID-19.

Active -> Total number of active COVID-19 cases.